Middle East conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz oil flows and cuts global supply forecasts
The Facts
- The IEA reported that global oil supply fell by about 10.1 million barrels per day in March, describing it as the largest disruption on record.
- The IEA said restrictions on tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz were a major factor behind the March supply disruption.
- The IEA said oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply from February levels, with March transit averaging about 1.9 million barrels per day versus 14.2 million barrels per day in February.
- The IEA revised its 2026 global oil demand outlook from expected growth to a slight decline of about 80,000 barrels per day.
- OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day, citing the impact of the Middle East conflict.
- OPEC reported that global refinery throughput fell by 5 million barrels per day in March to 77.1 million barrels per day, the sharpest monthly drop since April 2020.
- OPEC reported that its member countries' crude oil production fell by about 7.88 million barrels per day in March to about 20.79 million barrels per day.
Analytical frames for this storyTap to explore
Context
Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much to oil markets?
The strait is a critical export route for Gulf energy supplies. The IEA said tanker movements through Hormuz fell dramatically from February to March, sharply reducing exports from the Gulf and contributing to the global supply shock Interfax.ru,SAPO.
What are OPEC and the IEA saying about oil demand?
Both organizations lowered their outlooks, but in different ways. OPEC cut its second-quarter global demand forecast by 500,000 barrels per day because of the Middle East conflict, while the IEA said 2026 global oil demand is now expected to decline slightly by about 80,000 barrels per day instead of growing Boursorama,Le Figaro.fr,FortuneIndia,Le Figaro.fr.
How has the disruption affected oil processing, not just production?
OPEC said global refinery throughput dropped by 5 million barrels per day in March to 77.1 million barrels per day, the steepest monthly decline since April 2020. The organization linked the fall to disrupted crude flows east of Suez alongside seasonal refinery maintenance Корреспонде…,Lenta.ru,���.Ru // �….
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