Colorado State University issues first 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast
The Facts
- Colorado State University released its initial 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Thursday.
- The CSU forecast calls for 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during the 2026 season.
- CSU described the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as slightly below average or below normal.
- The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
- The forecast cites expected El Niño conditions as a main factor behind reduced Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026.
- Peak Atlantic hurricane activity typically occurs between August and October.
- Multiple reports say El Niño tends to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, which can hinder storm formation or intensification.
- CSU's forecast includes a 32% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline.
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Context
Why is the 2026 season forecast to be less active than average?
The main reason cited is the expected development of El Niño, which typically raises vertical wind shear over the Atlantic and makes it harder for tropical systems to organize and strengthen, especially during the peak of the season mySA,Reuters,TV Azteca,WRAL.
What numbers are forecasters predicting for 2026?
CSU forecast 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes for the Atlantic basin in 2026, which several reports describe as slightly below average compared with a typical season Aol,20 minutos,CNN Español,NOLA.
Does a below-average forecast mean the U.S. is safe from hurricane impacts?
No. Coverage of the forecast notes that CSU still puts the chance of at least one major U.S. landfall at 32%, and forecasters stressed that one storm can still cause major damage even in a quieter season overall Daily Mail,Newsweek,Weather Network.
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