World Bank says Middle East war could raise energy prices 24% and lift commodity costs in 2026
The Facts
- The World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook projects energy prices will rise by about 24% in 2026 because of the Middle East war.
- The World Bank says that increase would put energy prices at their highest level since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
- In the bank's baseline scenario, overall commodity prices are expected to rise about 16% in 2026.
- The World Bank's baseline assumes the most acute war-related supply disruptions end in May and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns toward pre-war levels by October or the last quarter of the year.
- The bank said risks are tilted toward even higher prices if hostilities escalate or supply disruptions last longer than expected.
- The World Bank said the rise in commodity prices is expected to increase inflation and slow growth, with developing economies particularly exposed.
- The report links the price outlook to disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global oil shipments.
Analytical frames for this storyTap to explore
Context
What is the World Bank's main forecast?
The bank forecasts that energy prices will rise about 24% in 2026 and that overall commodity prices will increase about 16% under its baseline scenario Reuters,L'Economiste Maghré….
Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter in this forecast?
The World Bank says the war has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil and liquefied natural gas exports, so reduced traffic there is feeding into tighter supply and higher prices WSJ,RTE.ie.
What could change these projections?
The forecast assumes the sharpest disruptions ease in May and shipping gradually recovers, but the bank says prices could climb further if the conflict widens or supply interruptions persist longer than expected Reuters,RTP - Rádio Televis….
View all 100 sources
Wire services (8)
ReutersGlobal Banking & Finance ReviewWorld Bank: 24% Energy Price Surge in 2026 Due to Middle Eas...
Independent coverage (50)
HaberlerDünya Bankası Raporu: Ortadoğu'daki Savaş Nedeniyle 2026'da ...
Business ReviewWar-driven energy shock to fuel inflation and slow growth gl...
Tunisie NumeriqueBanque mondiale: Les prix des produits de base devraient aug...
Última HoraLa guerra impulsa precios de materias primas
L'Economiste MaghrébinLa Banque mondiale anticipe une flambée des prix des matière...
Azeri - Press Informasiya AgentliyiWorld Bank: Strait of Hormuz closure drives up fertilizer pr...
Mehr News AgencyWB predicts 24% hike in energy prices in 2026
Greater KashmirWorld Bank predicts 24% rise in energy prices, warns of glob...
ReliefWebLa guerra en Oriente Medio provocará el mayor aumento de los...
ReliefWebLa guerre au Moyen-Orient en passe de provoquer la plus fort...
سبأنت - وكالة سبأLa Banque mondiale prévoit une hausse de 24 % des prix de l'...
Uzmanpara.comDünya Bankası'ndan savaş sonrası enerji fiyatlarıyla ilgili ...
Profit by Pakistan TodayWorld Bank forecasts 24% jump in energy prices, 16% rise in ...
ProPakistaniEnergy Prices May Jump 24% to Highest Since 2022 Crisis: Wor...
El EconomistaPrecios de energía subirían 24% y reactivarían presión infla...
The GuardianWorld Bank sees 16% spike in commodity prices this year
Manila BulletinWorld Bank: Middle East war to trigger biggest energy shock ...
BERNAMAEnergy Prices Set For Biggest Surge In Four Years Amid West ...
Gulf Daily News OnlineWorld Bank forecasts 24pc rise in energy prices
Cadena 3 ArgentinaEl conflicto en Irán podría disparar los precios de energía ...
Qatar News AgencyWB Predicts Energy Prices to Rise by 24 Percent This Year
Caras y CaretasBanco Mundial alerta por fuerte aumento de la energía en 202...
RTP - Rádio Televisão PortuguesaBanco Mundial afirma que preços da energia vão aumentar 23,6...
WAFA AgencyWorld Bank expects energy prices to rise by 24% this year
VanguardiaPrecio del petróleo se mantendrá elevado y podría subir hast...
Rwanda News AgencyLa guerre au Moyen-Orient en passe de provoquer la plus fort...
The Rio TimesWorld Bank Warns of Biggest Commodity Shock Since 2022
Economic TimesEnergy costs this year to hit highest since Ukraine invasion...
United News of IndiaUS-Israel's war on Iran expected to push global prices to th...
HoraceroPrecio del petróleo se mantendrá elevado, advierte Banco Mun...
Folha de S.PauloBanco Mundial prevê aumento de 24% nos preços da energia em ...
El UniversalPrecio del petróleo se mantendrá elevado, advierte Banco Mun...
TASSWorld Bank expects 16% rise in commodity prices in 2026
La RegiónEl conflicto en Irán disparará los precios de la energía a s...
RT en FrançaisGuerre contre l'Iran : les prix des métaux de base vers des ...
La Vie écoPrix de l'énergie : La Banque mondiale table sur une hausse ...
china.org.cn/china.com.cn(中国网)La Banque mondiale prédit une hausse de 24% du prix de l'éne...
www.gercekgundem.comDünya Bankası'ndan Enerji Alarmı! 4 Yılın En Sert Artışı Bek...
Son DakikaDünya Bankası: Emtia Fiyatları Bu Yıl Yüzde 16 Artacak - Son...
TürkiyeSon 4 yılın en büyük artışını tetikleyecek! Orta Doğu'daki s...
Anadolu AjansıMiddle East war to trigger biggest energy price surge in 4 y...
EconomiaBanco Mundial projeta energia mais cara em 2026
Valor EconômicoBanco Mundial prevê alta de 24% nos preços da energia devido...
Istoe dinheiroBanco Mundial prevê aumento de 24% nos preços da energia em ...
Ak�amDünya Bankası'ndan enerji alarmı: 2022'den bu yana en büyük ...
Tribuna do SertãoPreço de energia vai subir 24% no mundo este ano, maior alta...
Le TelegrammePétrole, métaux, engrais : la Banque mondiale prévoit une en...
Anadolu AjansıDünya Bankası: Orta Doğu'daki savaş, enerji fiyatlarında son...
HaberlerDünya Bankası: Orta Doğu'daki savaş, enerji fiyatlarında son...
El RancagüinoBanco Mundial prevé una subida del 23,6% en los precios de l...
About these frames
The Watchdog: Wrongdoing, responsibility, corruption, transparency. Who knew what, when, and what they did about it.
The Analyst: Costs, jobs, inflation, growth, incentives, markets, tradeoffs. Follow the money.
The Architect: Stability, law, enforcement, institutional design, separation of powers, regulatory process, rule of law. How are order and governance maintained?
The First Responder: Who gets hurt or helped. Quality of life, vulnerable groups, public health, human cost and benefit.
See this differently than someone you know would? Two ways to keep it going.
The dial works on any URL — paste an article you read elsewhere this week.