WMO says El Niño has an 80% chance of developing between June and August
The Facts
- The World Meteorological Organization said there is an 80% chance El Niño will develop during the June-to-August period.
- The WMO said the probability that El Niño will continue until at least November is near or above 90%.
- Most forecast models cited by the WMO indicate the event would be at least moderate in strength and could be strong.
- El Niño is associated with unusually warm conditions in the tropical Pacific and can alter global temperature and rainfall patterns.
- The WMO warned that El Niño is expected to raise the risk of extreme weather in the coming months, including heatwaves and shifts toward drought in some places and heavier rain in others.
- The exact timing of El Niño's peak and how strong it ultimately becomes are still uncertain.
How left and right are reading this
- Both agree
- A credible WMO warning points to a likely El Niño that could last into November, with real risks of heatwaves, drought in some places, and heavier rain in others even though its exact peak and ultimate strength remain uncertain.
- They split on
- Less a disagreement than a question of emphasis: preparing now for uneven harms across places, versus stressing caution and seriousness without overstating an event whose exact peak and strength are still uncertain.
Analytical frames for this storyTap to explore
Context
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a recurring ocean-atmosphere pattern linked to unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which can shift weather patterns around the world Indian Express,Independent.
Why does this forecast matter beyond the Pacific?
Because El Niño can influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, the WMO says it can increase the likelihood of heatwaves, drought in some regions, and heavier rainfall in others over the coming months NDTV,Ouest France,Independent.
What remains uncertain in the forecast?
Sources agree that while the odds of El Niño forming are high, forecasters still cannot say precisely when it will peak or how strong it will become, beyond model guidance that it will likely be moderate and could be strong Guardian,Haber7.com,Independent.
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Wire services (5)
Independent coverage (50)
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HaberlerWMO: Hava sıcaklığını artıran El Nino hava olayı yüzde 80 ol...
Der TagesspiegelDürren, Starkregen und Hitzewellen: Weltwetterorganisation s...
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RTP - Rádio Televisão PortuguesaEl Niño "potencialmente forte". ONU alerta para o risco de o...
Interfax.ruВ ООН предупредили о повышенных температурах почти по всему ...
Le Figaro.fr" De l'huile sur le feu d'une planète qui se réchauffe " : l...
Süddeutsche ZeitungEl Niño steht an: globaler Temperaturanstieg und Extremwette...
Sözcü GazetesiBirleşmiş Milletler uyardı: 'Bu yaz çok zor geçecek'
Economic TimesPoweful El Nino may strike; Climate change will make its eff...
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stern.deExperten: Hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit für Wetterphänomen El Niño...
Dnevnik.hrVraća se El Niño i bit će snažan: "Svijet ovo mora tretirati...
N-tvPhänomen gieße "Öl ins Feuer": UN-Wetterorganisation warnt v...
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cnbctv18.comHeatwaves, floods and droughts loom as El Nino takes shape, ...
MirrorSuper El Niño weather alert as UK warned 'more than 40C woul...
The Straits TimesUN warns of extreme heat risk from El Nino and urges prepare...
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lindependant.frDes hausses de températures de plus de 6°C déjà observées da...
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EXPRESSUrgent weather warning issued as world told to prepare for E...
Kronen ZeitungWetterphänomen El Niño ab Juni erwartet
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Le TelegrammeUn risque accru de sécheresse, inondations et canicules : l'...
kp.ruООН предупредила о неизбежном возвращении Эль-Ниньо: последс...
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FocusEl Niño kommt: "Gießt Öl ins Feuer globaler Erwärmung
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