Forecasters say El Niño is likely to develop by summer, with a chance of becoming very strong later in 2026
The Facts
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is likely to develop soon, with an 82% chance during the May-July period.
- Forecasters say there is a 96% chance El Niño will persist through the winter of 2026-27.
- Current conditions are still ENSO-neutral even as forecasters report warming signs in the equatorial Pacific that point toward a transition to El Niño.
- Multiple reports say forecast models indicate the event could become strong or very strong later in 2026, though its eventual intensity remains uncertain.
- El Niño is the warm phase of the ENSO climate pattern, marked by warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
- Forecasters and meteorologists say El Niño can alter weather patterns worldwide, including temperature, rainfall and storm activity, with effects varying by region.
- Several sources say possible impacts include drought in some places, heavier rain or flooding in others, and weaker Atlantic hurricane activity or fewer hurricanes in some U.S. regions.
- A key unresolved question is how strong this El Niño will become, because sources note that spring forecasts carry more uncertainty.
How left and right are reading this
- Both agree
- El Niño is likely to emerge soon and could persist into the winter of 2026-27, with the potential to disrupt weather patterns across regions even as its eventual strength remains uncertain because spring forecasts are less reliable.
- They split on
- Less a disagreement than a question of emphasis: the communities most exposed to drought, flooding, and other uneven regional disruption, versus the forecasting uncertainty that argues for measured planning before treating a strong event as certain.
Analytical frames for this storyTap to explore
Context
What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a recurring climate pattern tied to warmer-than-average waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean Spectrum News Bay N…,FOX 11 Los Angeles,Jamaica Gleaner.
What are forecasters predicting right now?
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is likely to emerge by summer, assigning an 82% chance for the May-July period and a 96% chance that it lasts through the 2026-27 winter USA Today,WKMG,Santa Rosa Press De…. Some models suggest it could become strong or very strong later in the year, but forecasters say that outcome is not certain yet USA Today,livescience.com,FOX 11 Los Angeles.
Why does this matter beyond the Pacific Ocean?
Because El Niño can shift global weather patterns, it can affect rainfall, heat and storms far from the Pacific, raising the risk of drought in some regions and heavier rain or flooding in others; some U.S. forecasts also associate El Niño with fewer or weaker Atlantic hurricanes Newsday,Santa Rosa Press De…,Jamaica Gleaner,WKMG.
View all 48 sources
Independent coverage (48)
India News, Breaking News, Entertainment News | India.comRising risk of Super El Niño globally: Extreme heat, less ra...
El-Balad.comNOAA Raises 2026 Super El Niño Weather Odds to 1 in 3
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UDF | Новости БеларусиЭль-Ниньо набирает силу: в 2026 году мир может столкнуться с...
The Times of IndiaSuper El Niño 2026 warning: Pacific Ocean heating faster tha...
Tengrinews.kzСупер-Эль-Ниньо ударит по планете - как это отразится на Каз...
Jamaica GleanerRecord El Niño threatens extreme weather
LAistWhat a persistent ocean heatwave means for sea life and a po...
101.5 WPDHNew York Could Be Facing A Weather Event For The History Boo...
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Inquirer.netWestern Visayas agri, fishery sectors urged to brace for El ...
Yale Climate ConnectionsWhat's a 'super El Niño'? And other El Niño questions, answe...
LADbible'Super El Nino' wiped out nearly all life in event worse tha...
dtNext.inSouthwest monsoon likely to set in over Kerala on May 26: IM...
FOX 11 Los AngelesEl Niño explainer: Some forecast models suggest possible rec...
NewsweekMost Galapagos penguins could be killed this year, here's wh...
ТСН.uaАномальная жара и разрушительные ураганы: на Землю надвигает...
livescience.com'The biggest El Niño event since the 1870s': 'Super' El Niño...
RT на русскомЖара, ливни и климатический хаос: что такое Эль-Ниньо и чем ...
LADbibleHow the devastating 'Super El Nino' forming in the Pacific O...
Lancaster Eagle-GazetteHow will El Niño affect Ohio? Weather pattern boosts hurrica...
WKMG'El Niño likely to emerge soon:' Here's what it means for Fl...
NST OnlineHot days coming as El Niño expected in June, lasting to 2027...
KABC-AMChances of El Niño, Super El Nino Growing
UNILADExperts issue warning as 'Super El Niño' forming at rapid r...
El-Balad.comNational Weather Service Raises El Nino Weather Pattern Odds...
Santa Rosa Press DemocratThis coming El Niño could be a monster. Will it bring epic r...
Free Malaysia TodayEl Niño will bring drier weather until January, says expert
Московский КомсомолецВесенний барьер пройден: метеорологи прогнозируют самый мощн...
WIONSuper El Niño to bring drought and deluge in India in 2026. ...
LADbible'Super El Nino' is forming in the Pacific Ocean that will ha...
NewsXEl Nino 2026 Impact on India: IMD Warns of Weak Monsoon, Dro...
Sun.Star Network OnlineUN urges PH to prepare for El Niño
Alternet.orgSuper El Niño: Why some Americans are prepping for the big o...
News-Talk 1340 KROC AM & 96.9 FMHistoric Weather Alert: The Super El Niño Impact on Minnesot...
USA TodayA Super El Niño could bring a summer of \
NewsdayEl Niño: Meteorologists predict it will likely develop by su...
Economic TimesBiggest ever Super El Niño may be coming next month and it c...
Signs Of The TImesSuper El Niño, is the Terminator to blame?
Severe Weather EuropeHow Will the 2026 Super El Niño Impact Summer Weather Patter...
NewsXWhat is El Nino? Weather pattern putting Indian cities at ri...
Spectrum News Bay News 9El Niño Status update for 2026
RocketNews | Top News Stories From Around the GlobeWarning of record global temperatures as chance of very stro...
NewsXSuper El Niño 2026: These Indian Cities Could Face Drought, ...
The Nation ThailandSevere Climate warning -- 'Super El Niño' risk puts world ...
Claims JournalUS Forecaster Says El Niño Has 82% Chance of Developing by J...
The Business StandardUS forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by J...
oceanservice.noaa.govEl Niño and high tide flooding, a possible double whammy for...
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