Developing El Niño is expected to shift 2026 hurricane activity toward the Pacific and away from the Atlantic

Monday, June 1, 2026Science & ClimateWell-covered3 frames

The 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, while the Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1.
Multiple sources report that El Niño is expected to develop soon or during the summer and overlap with the 2026 hurricane seasons.
Sources say El Niño generally increases hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific basins.
Sources also say El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, in part because it increases vertical wind shear that can disrupt storm development.
Some early Atlantic outlooks cited in the coverage project a near- or below-average 2026 Atlantic season, including Colorado State University's April forecast of 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Several sources emphasize that even if the Atlantic season is quieter overall, coastal communities can still face serious impacts because one storm can make a season destructive.
What remains unresolved is the exact strength and timing of El Niño and how that will translate into actual storm counts and landfalls, with NOAA's official seasonal outlook still pending in some reports.

How left and right are reading this

Both agree: El Niño is expected to overlap the 2026 hurricane seasons in ways that likely shift activity toward the eastern and central Pacific and away from the Atlantic, but uncertainty about its strength and timing leaves no room for complacency because one storm can still be devastating.
They split on: Less a disagreement than a question of emphasis: forecast uncertainty about how El Niño will translate into actual storm counts and landfalls, versus the practical takeaway that even a quieter Atlantic season still demands serious preparation.

The 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, while the Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1.
Multiple sources report that El Niño is expected to develop soon or during the summer and overlap with the 2026 hurricane seasons.
Sources say El Niño generally increases hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific basins.
Sources also say El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, in part because it increases vertical wind shear that can disrupt storm development.
Some early Atlantic outlooks cited in the coverage project a near- or below-average 2026 Atlantic season, including Colorado State University's April forecast of 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Several sources emphasize that even if the Atlantic season is quieter overall, coastal communities can still face serious impacts because one storm can make a season destructive.
What remains unresolved is the exact strength and timing of El Niño and how that will translate into actual storm counts and landfalls, with NOAA's official seasonal outlook still pending in some reports.