NOAA says El Niño has formed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to strengthen
The Facts
- NOAA said Thursday that El Niño conditions are now under way in the tropical Pacific.
- NOAA said the El Niño conditions developed during the past month, alongside above-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific.
- Forecasters expect the current El Niño to strengthen in the coming months.
- NOAA and other reports cited a 63% chance that this El Niño will become very strong between November and January.
- Multiple reports say this event could rank among the strongest El Niño episodes in records that go back to 1950, though that outcome remains a forecast rather than a certainty.
- El Niño affects weather patterns globally and is expected to raise global temperatures further while increasing the likelihood of extremes such as floods, droughts and heat waves.
- Several sources say the effects of this El Niño are expected to be amplified by ongoing human-caused climate warming.
How left and right are reading this
- Both agree
- El Niño is already under way, likely to strengthen, and carries credible near-term risks of higher temperatures and more extreme weather, even as the strongest outcomes remain forecasts rather than certainties.
- They split on
- Whether this is chiefly a warning about climate-amplified public risk from a strengthening El Niño, or a call to separate observed Pacific conditions from still-uncertain projections about how severe it will become.
Analytical frames for this storyTap to explore
Context
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a recurring natural climate pattern in which trade winds shift and parts of the tropical Pacific warm, changing weather patterns around the world NYT,BBC.
Why does NOAA's declaration matter?
NOAA's declaration means the oceanic and atmospheric thresholds used to identify El Niño have been met in the equatorial Pacific, and it signals that forecasters expect broad effects on weather in the months ahead NYT,La Nacion.
What is still uncertain?
Forecasters broadly expect El Niño to strengthen, but its eventual intensity and the exact regional impacts are still uncertain; NOAA's current estimate gives a 63% chance of a very strong event between November and January rather than a guarantee newsORF.at,midilibre.fr,N-tv.
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Wire services (3)
Independent coverage (50)
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