Oil prices were little changed as traders weighed OPEC and IEA outlooks for 2026
The Facts
- Oil prices were trading with limited movement on May 14, with Brent around $105 per barrel and WTI around $101 per barrel.
- OPEC lowered its 2026 oil demand growth forecast to about 1.2 million barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day in its latest monthly report.
- The IEA said global oil supply is expected to fall short of demand this year because the conflict involving Iran has disrupted Middle East production and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The IEA revised down its 2026 global oil demand outlook to about 104 million barrels per day, citing the effects of the Middle East conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
- The IEA raised its estimate for the decline in global oil supply in 2026 to about 4 million barrels per day, projecting supply at roughly 102.2 million barrels per day.
- The IEA reported that global oil supply fell by about 1.8 million barrels per day in April, reflecting attacks on energy infrastructure and restrictions on tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz.
- OPEC said its crude oil production fell by about 1.7 million barrels per day in April, with large declines reported in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
- The outlook for oil remains uncertain because supply disruptions and refinery damage linked to the Iran and Ukraine wars are tightening fuel markets even though benchmark crude prices were relatively stable in the latest session.
How left and right are reading this
- Both agree
- Relatively steady crude prices are masking a market being tightened by conflict-driven supply losses, disrupted tanker traffic, and refinery damage, leaving the outlook more uncertain than the latest session suggests.
- They split on
- Less a disagreement than a question of emphasis: the public risk of a more fragile energy system as fuel markets tighten, versus the market’s challenge in pricing geopolitical disruption and the possibility of tighter conditions ahead.
Analytical frames for this storyTap to explore
Context
Why were oil prices not moving sharply despite warnings about supply?
Reports showed traders were balancing several forces at once: OPEC cut its demand-growth forecast, while the IEA warned that supply disruptions could keep the market tighter and more volatile. That mix helped leave Brent and WTI near flat in Thursday trading rather than driving a one-direction move CNBC,mint,HABERTURK.COM.
What did OPEC change in its outlook?
OPEC reduced its estimate for 2026 oil demand growth to about 1.2 million barrels per day from 1.4 million in its monthly update. Separately, its report showed April crude production fell by about 1.7 million barrels per day, including large drops in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait CNBC,Anadolu Ajansı,РИА Новости.
What is the IEA warning about?
The IEA said disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict, including restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz, mean global oil supply may not meet demand this year. It also lowered its 2026 demand forecast to about 104 million barrels per day and raised its estimate of the 2026 supply decline to roughly 4 million barrels per day Reuters,Коммерсант.…,Interfax.ru.
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