Nature study links Amazon deforestation and warming to lower threshold for large-scale forest degradation

Wednesday, May 6, 2026Science & ClimateWell-covered3 frames

The Facts

A new study by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was published in the journal Nature on Wednesday.
The study examined the combined effects of deforestation and global warming on the stability of the Amazon rainforest.
The researchers found that if deforestation increases to about 22% to 28% of the Amazon and global warming reaches about 1.5 to 1.9 degrees Celsius, around two-thirds of the rainforest could shift into degraded forest or savannah-like ecosystems.
The study says deforestation lowers the warming threshold for large-scale Amazon degradation by drying the atmosphere and weakening the forest’s ability to generate its own rainfall.
Without additional deforestation, the study estimates that similarly large-scale changes in the Amazon would likely occur only at much higher warming levels of about 3.7 to 4 degrees Celsius.
Several reports on the study say roughly 15% to 18% of the Amazon has already been lost or deforested, placing current conditions below but closer to the study’s modeled risk range.
The study’s findings matter beyond the forest itself because the Amazon is described in coverage as a major carbon sink and regulator of regional humidity and rainfall, meaning large-scale degradation would affect climate, ecosystems and communities that depend on it.
The study presents protection and restoration of forest cover as a way to strengthen the Amazon’s resilience, but the timing and extent of any future transition depend on how much additional deforestation occurs and how much global temperatures rise.

How left and right are reading this

Both agree: Additional deforestation makes the Amazon markedly more vulnerable to warming, while protecting and restoring forest cover can materially strengthen resilience against large-scale degradation with consequences that extend beyond the forest itself.
They split on: Less a disagreement than a question of emphasis: the speed and scale of cascading harm to climate, ecosystems, and forest-dependent communities, versus the practical leverage of land-use choices to raise the threshold for large-scale damage.

A new study by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was published in the journal Nature on Wednesday.
The study examined the combined effects of deforestation and global warming on the stability of the Amazon rainforest.
The researchers found that if deforestation increases to about 22% to 28% of the Amazon and global warming reaches about 1.5 to 1.9 degrees Celsius, around two-thirds of the rainforest could shift into degraded forest or savannah-like ecosystems.
The study says deforestation lowers the warming threshold for large-scale Amazon degradation by drying the atmosphere and weakening the forest’s ability to generate its own rainfall.
Without additional deforestation, the study estimates that similarly large-scale changes in the Amazon would likely occur only at much higher warming levels of about 3.7 to 4 degrees Celsius.
Several reports on the study say roughly 15% to 18% of the Amazon has already been lost or deforested, placing current conditions below but closer to the study’s modeled risk range.
The study’s findings matter beyond the forest itself because the Amazon is described in coverage as a major carbon sink and regulator of regional humidity and rainfall, meaning large-scale degradation would affect climate, ecosystems and communities that depend on it.
The study presents protection and restoration of forest cover as a way to strengthen the Amazon’s resilience, but the timing and extent of any future transition depend on how much additional deforestation occurs and how much global temperatures rise.

Nature study links Amazon deforestation and warming to lower threshold for large-scale forest degradation

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Nature study links Amazon deforestation and warming to lower threshold for large-scale forest degradation

The Facts

Context

Independent coverage (30)

Nature study links Amazon deforestation and warming to lower threshold for large-scale forest degradation

The Facts

Context

Independent coverage (30)

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Nature study links Amazon deforestation and warming to lower threshold for large-scale forest degradation

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