IISS study says a Taiwan conflict could escalate to U.S.-China nuclear confrontation

Wednesday, May 27, 2026International AffairsWell-covered3 frames

The International Institute for Strategic Studies said a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan could escalate to nuclear use.
The IISS assessment said such a conflict would likely involve both militaries targeting each other's command and communications hubs.
The report said the Asia-Pacific is at the center of a new phase of nuclear competition, with states expanding nuclear arsenals and some non-nuclear states pursuing long-range conventional strike capabilities.
The assessment was released ahead of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where Taiwan is expected to be one of the prominent security issues discussed.
Questions about U.S. commitments in Asia are part of the current debate around Taiwan, including concern in Taipei after the Trump-Xi summit and uncertainty over U.S. support for the island.
China claims Taiwan as its territory and conducts near-daily military operations around the island; Taiwan said China carried out recent joint combat readiness patrols that prompted complaints from Taipei.

How left and right are reading this

Both agree: A Taiwan conflict now carries a credible risk of spiraling beyond a conventional fight, as military pressure around the island intersects with a wider Asia-Pacific buildup in nuclear and long-range strike capabilities.
They split on: Whether the story is about a regional arms competition making nuclear escalation more likely, or about uncertainty over U.S. commitments making a Taiwan crisis more dangerous under pressure.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies said a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan could escalate to nuclear use.
The IISS assessment said such a conflict would likely involve both militaries targeting each other's command and communications hubs.
The report said the Asia-Pacific is at the center of a new phase of nuclear competition, with states expanding nuclear arsenals and some non-nuclear states pursuing long-range conventional strike capabilities.
The assessment was released ahead of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where Taiwan is expected to be one of the prominent security issues discussed.
Questions about U.S. commitments in Asia are part of the current debate around Taiwan, including concern in Taipei after the Trump-Xi summit and uncertainty over U.S. support for the island.
China claims Taiwan as its territory and conducts near-daily military operations around the island; Taiwan said China carried out recent joint combat readiness patrols that prompted complaints from Taipei.