WMO and UK Met Office project near-record global temperatures through 2030
The Facts
- The World Meteorological Organization released a climate outlook prepared by the UK Met Office covering expected conditions for 2026-2030.
- The report says global average temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels during 2026-2030.
- Annual global mean near-surface temperatures for 2026-2030 are projected to range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average.
- The outlook gives an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
- The report says there is a 75% chance that the 2026-2030 five-year mean temperature will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 baseline, and a 91% chance that at least one year in that period will exceed 1.5°C.
- The Arctic is projected to warm faster than the global average, with winter temperatures over the next five extended Northern Hemisphere winters forecast to be 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 average.
- The findings matter because the 1.5°C benchmark is the temperature limit governments said in the Paris Agreement they would try to avoid exceeding over the long term, while this report projects temporary annual and five-year-average exceedances.
- One unresolved point is exactly which year may set the next record: some coverage of the report says an El Niño expected in late 2026 could raise the likelihood that 2027 becomes the next record year, but the report itself presents this as a probability rather than a certainty.
How left and right are reading this
- Both agree
- Temperatures are projected to stay at or near record highs through 2026-2030, with a strong chance the five-year average exceeds 1.5°C — a meaningful benchmark because governments said in Paris they would try to avoid crossing it over the long term.
- They split on
- Less a disagreement than a question of emphasis: the sustained breach risk around the Paris benchmark and faster Arctic warming, versus the report’s core function as a measure of whether governments are staying within the long-term limit they set.
Analytical frames for this storyTap to explore
Context
Does this mean the Paris Agreement goal is permanently lost?
Not necessarily. The sources describe the report as projecting temporary exceedances of 1.5°C in individual years and possibly in the 2026-2030 five-year average, while noting that the Paris Agreement refers to trying to prevent longer-term average warming from exceeding that level Terra,Hindu,En Son Haber.
Why is the Arctic highlighted in the report?
The report says Arctic warming is expected to outpace the global average. It forecasts that Arctic temperatures over the next five extended Northern Hemisphere winters will be 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 average, indicating stronger regional warming than the global mean Hindustan Times,20 minutos,En Son Haber.
What could push one of these years to a new record?
Several sources say the report's authors pointed to a possible El Niño developing in late 2026, which could increase the chances that 2027 becomes the next record-warm year. However, that is presented as a factor that raises the probability, not as a confirmed outcome РБК-Украина,Le Figaro.fr,DIE WELT.
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Wire services (11)
Independent coverage (50)
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