UN weather agency says a record global hot year is likely before 2030 as El Niño conditions are expected

Wednesday, May 27, 2026Science & ClimateWell-covered3 frames

The World Meteorological Organization has warned that at least one year before 2030 is very likely to set a new global temperature record.
The current global temperature record could be broken as soon as 2027 if El Niño develops later this year.
Multiple scientific and meteorological sources say El Niño is likely to emerge during the second half of 2026.
NASA satellite observations detected a warm Kelvin wave in the equatorial Pacific, which scientists describe as a sign that often precedes El Niño.
Sources describe El Niño as a natural Pacific warming pattern that can alter global weather, including raising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns across regions.
The UN warning links the risk of record heat to both long-term warming from rising fossil-fuel emissions and the additional short-term warming influence of El Niño.
Governments and industries are already preparing for possible El Niño impacts on food supply and fisheries, including agricultural planning in the Philippines and a continued anchovy-fishing halt in Peru.
Scientists and forecasters say the exact strength of the coming El Niño remains uncertain, and some sources caution that seasonal models are less precise at this stage.

How left and right are reading this

Both agree: Record heat risk before 2030 is being treated as the product of long-term warming plus a possible El Niño boost, serious enough that food-supply and fisheries planning is already shifting despite real uncertainty about how strong the event will be.
They split on: Less a disagreement than a question of emphasis: fossil-fuel-driven warming as the central explanation for likely record heat, versus a blended account that gives more weight to El Niño as a natural short-term force alongside longer-term warming.

The World Meteorological Organization has warned that at least one year before 2030 is very likely to set a new global temperature record.
The current global temperature record could be broken as soon as 2027 if El Niño develops later this year.
Multiple scientific and meteorological sources say El Niño is likely to emerge during the second half of 2026.
NASA satellite observations detected a warm Kelvin wave in the equatorial Pacific, which scientists describe as a sign that often precedes El Niño.
Sources describe El Niño as a natural Pacific warming pattern that can alter global weather, including raising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns across regions.
The UN warning links the risk of record heat to both long-term warming from rising fossil-fuel emissions and the additional short-term warming influence of El Niño.
Governments and industries are already preparing for possible El Niño impacts on food supply and fisheries, including agricultural planning in the Philippines and a continued anchovy-fishing halt in Peru.
Scientists and forecasters say the exact strength of the coming El Niño remains uncertain, and some sources caution that seasonal models are less precise at this stage.